Comparing states' Medicaid nursing facilities and home and community-based services long-term care programs: quality and fit with inclination, capacity, and need

States employ home and community-based services (HCBS) increasingly in Medicaid support of long-term care and rely less on nursing facilities. We examine how states' nursing facilities and HCBS programs compare and whether states' long-term care responses' match their ideological inclination toward, material capacity for supporting, and their citizens' need for these public social programs. We use cross-sectional panel data on structural, process, and outcome quality for nursing facilities and HCBS congregate residential programs. We rank states, correlate these measures, and use regression to link inclination, capacity, and need to quality. We find that states' nursing facility and HCBS program quality are not closely related and that state HCBS congregate residential program quality is independent of inclination, capacity, and need. This latter result underscores a need for uniform HCBS standards and better data on quality. KEYWORDS home and community-based services, long-term care, Medicaid, nursing facility care, state long-term care policy