System reliability assessment method for wind power integration

Wind power penetration is expected to be largely increased in the near future. Nevertheless, due to the high variability of wind, the increase of the installed capacity in wind energy could sometimes lead to a stopping of nonadjustable power plants if the planning of those units was still decided without considering a realistic estimation of the available wind potential. In that way, and as it is illusory to imagine that all the installed wind capacity will always be produced, this article proposes a new method, based on a discrete convolution process, to compute a two-state probabilistic model for wind generation and to define, so, an equivalent capacity for global wind production in order to introduce it in the predictive peak load covering process. This global model is, in fact, based on the convolution between each single wind park multistates histograms and permits to compute accurate equivalent capacity for the wind production of an entire country. Finally, note that, here, the proposed method is applied to the Belgian production park. Index Terms--Power control, power system modeling, Weibull distributions, wind energy.