A neural network integrated decision support system for condition-based optimal predictive maintenance policy

This paper develops an integrated neural-networkbased decision support system for predictive maintenance of rotational equipment. The integrated system is platform-independent and is aimed at minimizing expected cost per unit operational time. The proposed system consists of three components. The first component develops a vibration-based degradation database through condition monitoring of rolling element bearings. In the second component, an artificial neural network model is developed to estimate the life percentile and failure times of roller bearings. This is then used to construct a marginal distribution. The third component consists of the construction of a cost matrix and probabilistic replacement model that optimizes the expected cost per unit time. Furthermore, the integrated system consists of a heuristic managerial decision rule for different scenarios of predictive and corrective cost compositions. Finally, the proposed system can be applied in various industries and different kinds of equipment that possess well-defined degradation characteristics. Index Terms--Cost-optimal control, decision support systems, maintenance, neural network applications.