Financial inclusion and stability in Ethiopia using bank-level data: A two-step system GMM estimation [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

Background This paper examines the impact of financial inclusion on bank stability within Ethiopian context, using panel data from 17 commercial banks over the period 2015-2023. Given the scarcity of research focused on the relationship between financial inclusion and bank stability in Ethiopia, this paper seeks to address a crucial gap by analyzing both conventional and digital aspects of financial inclusion in relation with bank stability. Methods A two-stage principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted to construct a composite financial inclusion index, integrating 10 conventional and 5 digital indicators. The study applied a two-step robust system generalized method of moments (GMM) to examine the effects of financial inclusion on bank stability, complemented by Granger causality testing to examine the directionality of this relationship. Results The result reveals a significant positive effect of financial inclusion on bank stability and Granger causality tests confirms a bi-directional relationship between financial inclusion and stability, indicating that improvements in financial inclusion foster greater stability and vice versa. Our results also highlight that while bank efficiency and GDP growth rate positively effect stability, total assets and income diversification exhibit detrimental effects. Conclusions It is essential to capitalize policy synergies to promote bank stability and to enhance financial inclusion through conventional and digital channels, while carefully managing the implications of risks associated with income diversification and asset distribution. Ensuring inclusive financial system is vital for maintaining bank stability, thus positioning it as a key priority for financial institutions.