The Hidden Toll: Investigating the influence of Corruption on Persistent Suicide in the Americas [version 2; peer review: 2 approved with reservations]

Background Corruption, a multifaceted governance issue, impacts public well-being globally. The recent trends reveal a rise in suicide rates across the Americas, while all other regions show declines over twenty years of time. This study investigates corruption’s effect on suicide in 26 American countries, considering moderating factors of unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Methods This study analysed latest two decades of available data, using stepwise panel regression method to investigate the effects of corruption and economic variables on suicide across income levels. Data were sourced from Transparency International, World Bank and the World Health Organization. Initially, unit root tests and CUSUM plots were used to ensure the stability and stationarity of the dataset, and model specification were validated through F test, LM test and Hausman test to select the ideal econometric model - POLS, REM, or FEM for the study. Results A strong suicide rate persistence revealed, particularly in high-income countries, where the lagged suicide variable showed a coefficient of 0.8063 (p < 0.001). Corruption significantly impacted suicide rates in upper-middle-income countries (coefficient = -0.0268, p < 0.05), with higher corruption perceptions scores correlating with lower suicide rates. Additionally, unemployment acted as a significant moderator, intensifying the corruption’s adverse impact on suicide with a coefficient of 0.0022 (p < 0.001) in upper-middle income nations. Economic growth demonstrated a minor protective effect, particularly in high-income regions, with an interaction coefficient of -0.0005 (p < 0.1), suggesting slight suicide reduction linked to economic stability. Conclusion This study found that corruption, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence suicide rates across the Americas. Corruption exacerbates suicide risks in upper-middle-income countries, while unemployment amplifies this effect. Economic growth offers a slight protective effect, particularly in high-income regions, suggesting that economic stability may help mitigate suicide rates.