REGRESSION SHARING MODEL DEVELOPMENT TO ESTIMATE THE IRAQI LOCAL AIRPORTS FUTURE DEMAND

The market share technique has long been used in forecasting air travel demand. It usually necessitates very good awareness of each airport within the group encompassed by the airport system which is intended to be analyzed. It requires a good comprehension of each airport's demand history and the perfect distinction of its market area. In this paper, an econometric model has been developed to estimate the local Iraqi airports shares of the national aggregate air passengers' demand. Each airport market area was assigned according to the airport vicinity and the local authority jurisdictions. The model depended on the socio-economic characteristics of these market areas in estimating their shares, provided that these characteristics are reliable and the market area borders are well defined. The model provided the capability of estimating the shares of newly established airports like Najaf International Airport despite the fact that it does not have historical data. , it was found that the most influential socio-economic factor affecting the market share of air passengers are the urban labor force and the population density factor.