Designing Effective Low-Impact Developments for a Changing Climate: A HYDRUS-Based Vadose Zone Modeling Approach

Low-Impact Developments (LIDs), like green roofs and bioretention cells, are vital for managing stormwater and reducing pollution. Amidst climate change, assessing both current and future LID systems is crucial. This study utilizes variably saturated flow modeling with the HYDRUS software (version 4.17) to analyze ten locations in Ontario, Canada, focusing on Toronto. Historical and projected climate data are used in flow modeling to assess long-term impacts. Future predicted storms, representing extreme precipitation events, derived from a regional climate model, were also used in the flow modeling. This enabled a comprehensive evaluation of LID performance under an evolving climate. A robust methodology is developed to analyze LID designs, exploring parameters like water inflow volumes, peak intensity, time delays, runoff dynamics, and ponding patterns. The findings indicate potential declines in LID performance attributed to rising water volumes, resulting in notable changes in infiltration for green roofs (100%) and bioretention facilities (50%) compared to historical conditions. Future climate predicted storms indicate reduced peak reductions and shorter time delays for green roofs, posing risks of flooding and erosion. Anticipated extreme precipitation is projected to increase ponding depths in bioretention facilities, resulting in untreated stormwater overflow and prolonged ponding times exceeding baseline conditions by up to 13 h at numerous Ontario locations.