Risk factor-based optimal endoscopic surveillance intervals after endoscopic submucosal dissection for gastric adenoma

Abstract To date, there exists no established endoscopic surveillance interval strategy after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for gastric adenoma. In this study, we suggest a risk factor-based statistical model for optimal surveillance intervals for gastric adenoma after ESD with curative resection. A cox proportional hazard model was applied to identify risk factors for recurrence after ESD. Patients (n = 698) were categorized into groups based on the identified risk factors. The cumulative density of recurrence over time was computed using a cubic splined baseline hazard function, and the customized surveillance interval was modeled for each risk group. The overall cumulative incidence of recurrence was 7.3% (n = 51). Risk factors associated with recurrence were male (hazard ratio [HR], 2.60, P = 0.030), protruded scar (HR, 3.18, P