Lifecycle Value Sustainment and Planning Mission Upgrades for Complex Systems: The Case of Warships

Changeability analysis methods primarily assist with formulating a response to uncertain and new requirements from various system stakeholders and include asset management issues such as modelling lifecycle path dependency. Epoch-era networks proved to be an effective tool for managing the evolving requirements of a capability system, ensuring sustained value through life. Over the life of a system, stakeholders are faced with countless options to change their capability systems to sustain value, which is path dependent and can greatly impact the scope of decisions available later in life. This paper introduces and demonstrates the application of a revised epoch-era network approach to explore many potential lifecycle paths, along with utility vs. expense strategies, demonstrated through an example of a military frigate subject to evolving requirements. Results indicated the future limitations to sustaining value if the largest and most capable technology upgrades are selected too early in life. The two best lifecycle paths from different strategies were compared to understand the utility/expense trade-offs for the most optimal frigate upgrade trajectory.