Study on discriminant method of rock type for porous carbonate reservoirs based on Bayesian theory

Abstract Rock typing is an extremely critical step in the estimation of carbonate reservoir quality and reserves in the Middle East. In order to recognize the rock types of carbonate reservoirs in the Mishrif Formation better, classify the reservoirs accurately, and establish the permeability model in line with the study area precisely, it is necessary to study the recognition method conforming to the actual situation of the study area. The practice shows that the current recognition methods based on capillary pressure curve, flow unit and NMR logging data can effectively distinguish rock types, but a large number of accurate experimental data are required, which can only be applied in a few cored well, however, cannot be applied in the whole oil field. In this study, based on core, thin section, logging data, the sedimentary characteristics of carbonate reservoir, logging response of four rock types as well as porosity and permeability characteristics of Mishrif Formation in W are comprehensively studied. Based on Bayesian stepwise discriminant theory in multivariate statistics, the Bayesian discrimination model based on conventional logging data is established. The examining results showed that, compared with the description of logging and coring, the accuracy of Bayesian discriminant model and cross confirmation rate have achieved more than 80% for the original sample. Reliability verification showed that the matching degree of the rock type recognized in the non-cored well with the core and mud logging was as high as 90%, which matched the depositional environment of the entire region. The study results confirm the validity and generalizability of the Bayesian method to identify and predict rock types, which can be applied to the entire Middle East region to solve the problem of the lack of core data to accurately evaluate the quality of non-cored wells and accurately predict production, meeting the needs of actual reservoir evaluation and production development in the Middle East.