A Multi-Scenario Prediction and Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Land Use and Carbon Storage Response in Shaanxi

The role of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. This study primarily focuses on examining the carbon storage in Shaanxi Province under different land-use scenarios. This study employed the LP-PLUS-InVEST model to explore the characteristics and spatial and temporal changes in carbon storage across four scenarios (business-as-usual (BUS), ecological protection (EPS), water–energy–food (WEF), and rural revitalization (RRS)) in Shaanxi Province. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in Shaanxi Province is on a decreasing trend mainly due to the large occupation of ecological land by economic development. EPS has the largest increase in carbon storage under the four scenarios in 2030 and 2060. On the contrary, BUS has a rapid expansion of construction land, which leads to a gradual decreasing trend in carbon storage. WEF has a gradual increasing trend in carbon storage, while RRS has a trend of increasing and then slowly decreasing carbon storage. The spatial distribution trends of carbon storage in all scenarios were similar; high-carbon-reserve areas were mainly distributed in southern and central Shaanxi, which has a better ecological environment and less construction land, while low-value areas were distributed in the Central Shaanxi Plain, which has high land-use intensity. In terms of the stability of carbon reserves, the stable areas are predominantly concentrated in the Qinling Mountains, while the unstable areas are concentrated in the plain urban areas. Specifically, returning cultivated land to forest and grassland is an important initiative to promote the increase in carbon storage in Shaanxi Province. The decrease in carbon storage is mainly affected by strong urban expansion. Our study optimizes the land-use pattern according to the development needs of Shaanxi Province, and promotes the integrated development of ecological protection, food security, and economic development. Guidance is provided to promote regional carbon neutrality.