Factoring Building Refurbishment and Climatic Effect into Heat Demand Assessments and Forecasts: Case Study and Open Datasets for Germany

Reducing the heat demand of existing buildings is an essential prerequisite for achieving a greenhouse gas-neutral energy supply. Numerous studies and open-source tools deal with heat demand mapping. It is not uncommon that estimated heat demands deviate from real heat consumption, so existing approaches should be improved by including in-depth building information. Some tools have recognised this problem and offer built-in functions for factoring various parameters into their assessments. Nevertheless, the necessary information is usually missing and should be obtained first. In this paper, we analyse the impact of thermal refurbishment and climate on building heat demand; hence, generate public datasets with corresponding key figures for each building type in different efficiency states and years. Accounting for already performed refurbishments in methodologies for assessing the actual state heat demand for cities will result in a reduction of at least 8% up to more than 21%, depending on whether conventional or passive house components were installed. As a result of climatic differences within Germany, a building’s heat demand can be up to 39% higher or up to 21% lower than the heat demand of an identical building in the reference climate of Germany. By further developing the approaches of the tools Hotmaps and Heat Cadastre Hamburg, we could improve the estimated heat demand of Hamburg to a value approximating the real consumption.