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0.05 Is Good: The NORD-h Protocol for Several Hypothesis Analysis Based on Known Risks, Costs, and Benefits

0.05 Is Good: The NORD-h Protocol for Several Hypothesis Analysis Based on Known Risks, Costs, and Benefits

Authors :
Alessandro Rovetta
Mohammad Ali Mansournia
Source :
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Vol 57, Iss 6, Pp 511-520 (2024)
Publication Year :
2024
Publisher :
Korean Society for Preventive Medicine, 2024.

Abstract

Statistical testing in medicine is a controversial and commonly misunderstood topic. Despite decades of efforts by renowned associations and international experts, fallacies such as nullism, the magnitude fallacy, and dichotomania are still widespread within clinical and epidemiological research. This can lead to serious health errors (e.g., misidentification of adverse reactions). In this regard, our work sheds light on another common interpretive and cognitive error: the fallacy of high significance, understood as the mistaken tendency to prioritize findings that lead to low p-values. Indeed, there are target hypotheses (e.g., a hazard ratio of 0.10) for which a high p-value is an optimal and desirable outcome. Accordingly, we propose a novel method that goes beyond mere null hypothesis testing by assessing the statistical surprise of the experimental result compared to the prediction of several target assumptions. Additionally, we formalize the concept of interval hypotheses based on prior information about costs, risks, and benefits for the stakeholders (NORD-h protocol). The incompatibility graph (or surprisal graph) is adopted in this context. Finally, we discuss the epistemic necessity for a descriptive, (quasi) unconditional approach in statistics, which is essential to draw valid conclusions about the consistency of data with all relevant possibilities, including study limitations. Given these considerations, this new protocol has the potential to significantly impact the production of reliable evidence in public health.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
19758375 and 22334521
Volume :
57
Issue :
6
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.f92ff95f094b43ce878be3a7cbe157f9
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.24.250