Analysis of the relationship between urban dynamics and prevalence of remote work based on population data generated from cellular networks

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the introduction of remote work as one way to ensure employee safety and reduce the amount of interpersonal contact while continuing business operations. Knowing the degree of prevalence of remote work and its establishment are considered to be important factors in future policies and urban planning. We applied non-negative matrix factorization to population-change data obtained from a mobile phone network to extract the component of working people, and analyzed the changes pre- and post-pandemic. Using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, we confirmed that the number of people working in office and residential districts has significantly changed at a significance level of 1% in urban areas centered around Tokyo and Osaka, the two largest cities in Japan. Time-series data show that the number of workers is decreasing in office districts and increasing in residential districts, suggesting increased prevalence of remote work due to the COVID-19 pandemic and that it has become established. In addition, in urban areas centered around Tokyo, we confirmed that there is a moderate correlation between the changes in the number of people working in office districts and the capital size of corporations in the same area.