The Scale and Revenue of the Land-Use Balance Quota in Zhejiang Province: Based on the Inverted U-Shaped Curve

The project-based construction land-use policy of ‘increasing versus decreasing balance’ (IVDB) is pivotal to easing the contradiction between urban and rural land in China. Understanding the relationship between the scale and revenue of the balanced quota is crucial for increasing the efficiency of quota-allocated, and further improving, IVDB performance. However, existing studies have rarely revealed the impact of the balanced quota’s scale on its revenue, supported through empirical evidence. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between the scale and revenue of the balanced quota and used the quadratic econometric model to explore the inverted U-shaped impact of the scale of the balanced quota on the revenue of the 1907 IVDB projects in Zhejiang province. The results show that: (1) the relationship between the quota’s scale and the revenue shows an inverted ‘U’ type in Zhejiang. On the premise of considering three control variable groups, the optimally balanced quota of Zhejiang province is 7.19 ha. (2) There is spatial heterogeneity in the optimal scale of the balanced quota in Zhejiang and the appreciated scale of the quota in northeast and southwest Zhejiang is 9.50 ha and 6.03 ha, respectively. Then we discussed problems associated with the scale and revenue of the project-based balanced quota under the implementation of the IVDB policy. The study enriches the performance analysis of IVDB policy from the point of view of economic perspective and tries to provide a scientific basis for the appropriate size quota for local government. Finally, comprehensive consideration of inputs to allocate the balanced quota, optimizing the rural resettlements spatial planning, and strengthening central-government supervision is put forward.