Geospatial Statistics Elucidate Competing Geological Controls on Natural CO2 Seeps in Italy

Site selection for the geological storage of CO2 for long timespans requires an understanding of the controls on containment, migration, and surface seepage of subsurface CO2 fluids. Evidence of natural CO2 migration from depth to the surface is documented at 270 sites from Italy, a prolific CO2 province. Previous studies indicate that CO2 delivery to and from buried structures that host CO2 accumulations is fault controlled but competing controls on the CO2 flow pathways affect the location and style of CO2 release. Here, we conduct a meta-analysis using a novel geospatial approach to statistically determine the relationship between the geological setting and structures and the CO2 seep spatial distribution and characteristics (morphological type, flux, and temperature) in Central Italy. We find that seep distribution differs on two spatial scales corresponding to the geological setting. On large scales (>5 km), seeps are isotropically distributed and align with regional structures such as anticlines, decollements, and extensional faults. On local scales (