An evolutionary theory on virus mutation in COVID-19

With the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2, the emergence of new strains is an intriguing question. This paper presents an evolutionary theory to analyze the mutations of the virus and identify the conditions that lead to the generation of new strains. We represent the virus variants using a 4-letter sequence based on amino acid mutations on the spike protein and employ an n-distance algorithm to derive a variant phylogenetic tree. We show that the theoretically-derived tree aligns with experimental data on virus evolution. Additionally, we propose an A-X model, utilizing the set of existing mutation sites (A) and a set of randomly generated sites (X), to calculate the emergence of new strains. Our findings demonstrate that a sufficient number of random iterations can predict the generation of new macro-lineages when the number of sites in X is large enough. These results provide a crucial theoretical basis for understanding the evolution of SARS-CoV-2.