Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions

This paper investigates the influence of multi-decadal climatic variability on the temporal evolution of root zone storage capacities (Sr,max) and its implications for streamflow predictions in the Meuse basin. Through a comprehensive analysis of 286 catchments across Europe and the US that are hydro-climatically comparable to the Meuse basin, we construct inter-decadal distributions of past deviations in evaporative ratios (IE) from expected values based on catchment aridity (IA). These distributions of ΔIE were then used to estimate inter-decadal changes in Sr,max and to quantify the associated consequences for streamflow predictions in the Meuse basin. Our findings reveal that, while catchments do not strictly adhere to their specific parametric Budyko curves over time, the deviations in IE are generally very minor, with an average ΔIE=0.01 and an interquartile range (IQR) of −0.01 to 0.03. Consequently, these minor deviations lead to limited inter-decadal changes in Sr,max, mostly ranging between −10 and +21 mm (−5 % to +10 %). When these changes (ΔSr,max) are accounted for in hydrological models, the impact on streamflow predictions in the Meuse basin is found to be marginal, with the most significant shifts in monthly evaporation and streamflow not exceeding 4 % and 12 %, respectively. Our study underscores the utility of parametric Budyko-style equations for first-order estimates of future Sr,max in hydrological models, even in the face of climate change and variability. This research contributes to a more nuanced understanding of hydrological responses to changing climatic conditions and offers valuable insights for future climate impact studies in hydrology.