Estimating the effect of inclisiran on hypercholesterolemia and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: the NHANES 1999–2018 study

Abstract Background Hypercholesterolemia has been identified as an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Inclisiran, an innovative small interfering RNA agent, is anticipated to result in a notable reduction of approximately 50% in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Given its transformative impact, this study scrutinized the eligibility of the US population for inclisiran treatment and evaluated its potential effects on hypercholesterolemia and the primary prevention of CVD. Methods This study applied the eligibility criteria from the ORION 10 and 11 trials to the 1999–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) dataset to estimate the size of the eligible population for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and ASCVD-risk equivalents. Utilizing the reduction in LDL-C levels from ORION 10, this study predicted the impact of inclisiran on LDL-C levels among ASCVD patients. Similarly, leveraging the changes in lipid levels from ORION 11, this study predicted inclisiran’s effect on the 10-year change in CVD risk and preventable CVD events in the ASCVD-risk equivalents population, employing the Framingham CVD Risk Score. Results The study identified 579 ASCVD patients (5 million) and 382 ASCVD-risk equivalents (2.66 million) who met the eligibility criteria from ORION 10 and 11. Among the ASCVD population, 3.5 million (70.2%) would achieve a ≥ 50% reduction in LDL-C levels after treatment. Furthermore, 4.6 million (91.3%) would achieve LDL-C levels