Predictive factors for severe long-term chronic kidney disease after acute kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy in critically ill patients: an ancillary study of the ELVIS randomized controlled trial

Abstract Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) is a serious complication in the ICU that results in increased mortality and risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Some studies suggest RRT modality may have an impact on long-term renal recovery after AKI. However, other predictive factors of severe long-term CKD in ICU patients with AKI requiring RRT are unknown. Methods We performed an ancillary study of the multicenter ELVIS trial in the population with AKI requiring RRT. Patients alive 3 months after RRT initiation were eligible. Serum creatinine levels available at 3, 6 and 12 months and 3 and 5 years were recorded. CKD stage was determined according to the glomerular filtration rate as estimated by the CKD-EPI formula. At each timepoint, two groups of patients were compared, a no/mild CKD group with normal or mildly to moderately decreased renal function (stages 1, 2 and 3 of the international classification) and a severe CKD group (stages 4 and 5). Our objective was to identify predictive factors of severe long-term CKD. Results Of the 287 eligible patients, 183 had follow-up at 3 months, 136 (74.3%) from the no/mild CKD group and 47 (25.7%) from the severe CKD group, and 122 patients at 5 years comprising 96 (78.7%) from the no/mild CKD group and 26 (21.3%) from the severe CKD group. Multivariate analysis showed that a long RRT period was associated with severe CKD up to 12 months (ORM12 = 1.03 95% CI [1.02–1.05] per day) and that a high SOFA score at the initiation of RRT was not associated with severe CKD up to 5 years (ORM60 = 0.85 95% CI [0.77–0.93] per point). Conclusion Severe long-term CKD was found in 21% of ICU survivors who underwent RRT for AKI. The duration of the RRT in AKI patients was identified as a new predictive factor for severe long-term CKD. This finding should be taken into consideration in future studies on the prognosis of ICU patients with AKI requiring RRT. Trial registration ELVIS trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number: NCT00875069 (June 16, 2014), and this ancillary study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number: NCT03302624 (October 6, 2017).