CONCEPTS AND METODOLOGIES REGARDING THE IMPROVEMENT OF ROMANIAN FOREIGN TRADE (II)

The aim of this paper is to emphasize the possible engines that can boost Romanian foreign trade from a chronic deficit to a more balanced one. In the beginning, we present the main theories and models that tackle the subject. In this matter, the paper starts with the analysis of neo-factors, Porter, the gravitational model, the input-output model, and the terms of trade in order to see the historic thought of trade model development. Following these models, a more mathematical approach is made, using a thorough analysis at the product level. All the computations are based on the combined nomenclature with its XXII classes, being the most exact determinant of traded goods. The paper uses statistic indexes as: Hirschman concentration index, elasticity coefficient, the degree of trade openness, in order to determine the specialization effect of the Romanian classes for a period of twenty one years, starting in 1991 and ending in 2012. This is the point where former, current and future specialized engines of potential trade growth can be established. It is crucial for a country to determine its potential in an open international arena, in order to take the necessary steps to encourage or discourage productive or non-productive areas of certain industry branches. Based on the results and on the previous methodology, a mix of theory with solid mathematical analyses, gives the opportunity to draw up different sets of sustainable development formulas in order to obtain a higher concentration ratio regarding several classes from the combined nomenclature. For Romania to obtain higher gains from international trade, a more sustainable integration in the European Union, it has to stop its chronic balance of trade deficit. Looking at and analysing the potential development of a combined nomenclature class or classes will help improving Romania’s chronic deficit, offering a long term prospective of sustainable development, reducing its foreign debt, improving its balance of trade accounts, and transforming its import driven economy to a more competitive export oriented economy. Achieving these standards can ensure Romania’s future growth and accession to a more privileged seat in the European Union and in the international arena.