Frictional Stabilities on Induced Earthquake Fault Planes at Fox Creek, Alberta: A Pore Fluid Pressure Dilemma

Abstract Earthquakes induced during hydraulic fracturing operations have occurred in a number of locales. However, in situ studies aimed to discern the triggering mechanism remain exclusively statistical in their nature. Here we calculate the fault slip tendencies of 11 hydraulic fracturing induced earthquakes in a historically aseismic area using a recently constructed quantitative model for the in‐situ stresses. It is shown that the ambient pore pressures of the nearby Duvernay unconventional reservoirs can provide enough ΔPf triggering fault movement. The local fluid pressures acting on the fault could readily be increased above the critical value if hydraulic connection exists between the fault and a propagating hydraulic fracture. The critical pressures necessary to induce slip are estimated using a probabilistic model that incorporates uncertainties of stress and fault's mechanical properties. These critical pressures are greater than the expected hydrostatic pressure but less the pore pressures of nearby unconventional reservoirs.