Yield Estimation of Wheat Using Cropland Masks from European Common Agrarian Policy: Comparing the Performance of EVI2, NDVI, and MTCI in Spanish NUTS-2 Regions

Monitoring wheat yield and production is essential for ensuring global food security. Remote sensing can be used to achieve it due to its ability to provide global, comprehensive, synoptic, and repetitive information in near real-time. This study used the 2006–2016 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2) time series at a 250 m spatial resolution and 2006–2011 MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (MTCI) time series at a 300 m spatial resolution. The post-maximum period for pixels containing wheat was selected based on the EU’s Common Agrarian Policy (CAP) and Corine Land Cover (CLC) data. It was correlated with yield and production values from governmental statistics (GS) of the largest Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics level 2 (NUTS-2) wheat producers in Spain and for Spain overall. The selection of wheat masks was crucial for the accuracy of the models, with CAP masks offering greater forecasting capability. Models using CLC produced R2 values between 0.45 and 0.7, while those using CAP outperformed the former with R2 values of 0.9 throughout Spain. Production models outperformed yield models, and MTCI was the vegetation index (VI) that provided the greatest R2 value of 0.94. However, model accuracy was heavily conditioned by the precision of input data, where anomalies were detected in some NUTS-2.