Establishment of a novel scoring model for mortality risk prediction in HIV-infected patients with cryptococcal meningitis

Abstract Background Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) remains a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients, despite advances in CM diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. This study was performed with the aim to develop and validate a novel scoring model to predict mortality risk in HIV-infected patients with CM (HIV/CM). Methods Data on HIV/CM inpatients were obtained from a Multicenter Cohort study in China. Independent risk factors associated with mortality were identified based on data from 2013 to 2017, and a novel scoring model for mortality risk prediction was established. The bootstrapping statistical method was used for internal validation. External validation was performed using data from 2018 to 2020. Results We found that six predictors, including age, stiff neck, impaired consciousness, intracranial pressure, CD4+ T-cell count, and urea levels, were associated with poor prognosis in HIV/CM patients. The novel scoring model could effectively identify HIV/CM patients at high risk of death on admission (area under curve 0.876; p