The Prevalence of Knee Symptoms, Radiographic, and Symptomatic Osteoarthritis at Four Time Points: The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, 1999‐2018

Objective To describe point prevalence of knee symptoms, radiographic knee osteoarthritis (rKOA), severe rKOA, and symptomatic rKOA at four time points in the longitudinal, population‐based Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project (JoCo OA). Methods Data were from 2573 JoCo OA participants with up to 18 years of follow‐up (1999‐2018) and standardized fixed‐flexion knee radiographs read by a single, reliable expert musculoskeletal radiologist. The four outcomes were 1) self‐reported knee symptoms, defined by “On most days, do you have pain, aching, or stiffness in your right/left knee?”; 2) rKOA, defined as a Kellgren‐Lawrence grade (KLG) of 2 to 4); 3) severe rKOA, defined as a KLG of 3 or 4; and 4) symptomatic rKOA, defined as both symptoms and rKOA in the same joint. Weighted prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were generated overall and by age group, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI). Results Most recently (2017‐2018, T4), the overall prevalence (percentage) of knee symptoms, rKOA, severe rKOA, and symptomatic rKOA was 41% (95% CI: 35‐47%), 61% (95% CI: 56‐67%), 35% (95% CI: 30‐40%), and 30% (95% CI: 24‐35%), respectively. From time point T1 to T4, prevalence increased for rKOA, severe rKOA, and symptomatic rKOA but not for knee symptoms. The prevalence of both severe rKOA (17‐39%) and symptomatic rKOA (23‐30%) was consistently higher among women. The prevalence of all outcomes was higher among those with higher BMI and among Black participants at all time points, particularly rKOA (35‐69%) and severe rKOA (22‐46%). Conclusion These updated estimates demonstrate a large and increasing burden of knee OA, particularly among women and Black individuals.