Study of direct and indirect risk assessment of landslide impacts on ultrahigh-voltage electricity transmission lines

Abstract Ultrahigh-voltage electricity systems are a vital part of energy networks, often across wide regions passing through mountainous terrains. The instability of slopes forming tower foundations along transmission lines poses a large risk to the entire energy network. Moreover, the tower foundations along extra-high-voltage electricity transmission lines are a very special type of element that are also highly vulnerable to landslides. In this study, an integrative risk assessment framework, including a hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis for the specified element at risk, and consequence estimation, is proposed to quantify the direct and indirect risks of landslides to power transmission lines. The Yanzi landslide, where a tower of the major ultrahigh-voltage transmission line from Sichuan (western China) to Shanghai (eastern China) has just been constructed, is taken as a case study. The correlation between landslide displacement and tower structure tilting is studied. In terms of the precipitation return period, factors of safety, failure probability, and deformation are simulated. A physical vulnerability curve is fitted by assuming a Weibull relationship between the horizontal deformation (hazard intensity) of the landslide and the tower inclination ratio. The total risk is calculated as the sum of the direct and indirect losses, among which the potential indirect risk due to tower damage is much greater than the direct risk. This work demonstrates the importance of landslide treatment strategies along electricity transmission lines by considering the potential indirect risks. The risk assessment model of landslides affecting ultrahigh-voltage electricity transmission lines proposed in this study could be useful for other types of indirect landslide risk evaluations.