Long-term investigation of the irrigation intervals and supplementary irrigation strategies effects on winter wheat in the U.S. Central High Plains based on a combination of crop modeling and field studies

Implementing optimized irrigation strategies to achieve acceptable wheat yield while conserving groundwater resources is critical for extensively irrigated regions. Field experiments regarding winter wheat irrigation management were conducted for two growing seasons (2013–2014 and 2014–2015) to calibrate and validate the AquaCrop model. To determine proper parameterization of the AquaCrop model for various data availability conditions, the model performance was tested for calibration based on three different datasets, including a) calibration based on a full irrigation condition (CA 1), b) calibration based on a dryland condition (CA 2), and c) calibration based on diverse irrigation conditions, which included full irrigation, different deficit irrigation levels, and dryland (CA 3). The CA 3 calibration scenario resulted in the model's highest accuracy in simulating biomass, grain yield, total soil water, and seasonal evapotranspiration during the calibration and validation process. However, the model performance was also convenient when calibration based on full irrigation conditions was pursued. The calibrated and validated AquaCrop model based on the CA3 was used to analyze long-term (36-year) irrigation management scenarios for identifying the optimized water-conservative winter wheat irrigation strategies. The long-term analysis emphasized that increasing irrigation intervals from 7 to 15 or 20 days could reduce groundwater withdrawal by 52–64 % while expecting a 14–19 % reduction in grain yield. By implementing one 25 mm irrigation after planting and two 25 mm depth irrigation events at jointing or leaf growth stages, 91 % of Kansas's average winter wheat yield (2.88 tons/ha) could be achieved. During wet years, the 1.2 ton/ha reduction in biomass and 0.27–0.62 ton/ha reduction in grain yield is expected irrespective of irrigation management strategies. Considerable uncertainty was detected in grain yield production during dry years under dryland (rainfed) conditions. The maximum winter wheat production could be achieved under normal years, establishing a balance between precipitation and heat units. Our agro-hydrological analysis revealed that the highest irrigation water use efficiency could be attained by the application of two 25 mm irrigation events at jointing or flag leaf growth stages during normal years, the application of two irrigation events during jointing or heading during wet years, and two 25 mm irrigations at heading or flowering during dry years. The results of this research could be used as a baseline for producers of the U.S. Central High Plains and semi-arid regions with similar climate characteristics to cope with water scarcity in winter wheat production.