Identification of Vulnerable Strategies Based on Assumption Base Planning

Dealing with uncertainties in long range planning is one of the main challenges. Different planning tools such as "Assumption Base Planning (ABP)" are utilized to reduce uncertainties. In this study ABP is used to plan proactive actions, contain shaping and hedging ones. Using ABP in a systematic participatory process which is implemented in this research helps decision makers to achieve consensus and commitment to the outputs. ABP is seen as an Ex-Ante evaluation in a policy process to reduce vulnerable conditions by separating conditions into 1) scenarios and 2) policies. "Comprehensive System of Information Technology": 2015, as one of the long range whitepapers in diffusion technology in I.R.Iran is analyzed as a case study.