Time, Spatial and Component Characteristics of Agricultural Carbon Emissions of China

In this study, the time trend, regional distribution and component characteristics of the agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs) of China are analyzed. The estimation methods of each component of the ACE are introduced. According to the annually provincial panel data set with the 31 provinces from 1996 to 2019, the time trend, regional distribution and component characteristics are empirically discussed. Meanwhile, since it is also worthwhile to explore the effect of the ACE on economic growth, econometric models such as the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effect (FE) models are employed to examine the inverted “U”-shape effect of ACE on both of the agricultural GDP and GDP under the control of other variables. The results show that (1) the carbon emission started to fall after 2015; (2) the majority source of the agricultural carbon emission is caused by chemical fertilizer, which is approximately half of the total; (3) the current provincial ACE levels (0.287 ×1010 kg in 2019) are significantly smaller than the estimated optimal level for agricultural GDP as well as GDP (respectively, 1.003×1010 kg and 1.256×1010 kg). In light of this, environmental protection and agricultural development are currently conflicted. Therefore, we suggest that the government should accept a trade-off between economic growth and the quality of the environment.