Risk of newly developed atrial fibrillation by alcohol consumption differs according to genetic predisposition to alcohol metabolism: a large-scale cohort study with UK Biobank

Abstract Background The predictive relationship between mild-to-moderate alcohol consumption and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. Objective We investigated whether the relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of incident AF could be associated with the genetic predisposition to alcohol metabolism. Methods A total of 399,329 subjects with genetic data from the UK Biobank database, enrolled between 2006 and 2010, were identified and followed for incident AF until 2021. Genetic predisposition to alcohol metabolism was stratified according to the polygenic risk score (PRS) tertiles. Alcohol consumption was categorized as non-drinkers, mild-to-moderate drinkers (< 30 g/day), and heavy drinkers (≥ 30 g/day). Results During the follow-up (median 12.2 years), 19,237 cases of AF occurred. When stratified by PRS tertiles, there was a significant relationship between genetic predisposition to alcohol metabolism and actual alcohol consumption habits (P < 0.001). Mild-to-moderate drinkers showed a decreased risk of AF (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–0.99), and heavy drinkers showed an increased risk of AF (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02–1.10) compared to non-drinkers. When stratified according to PRS tertiles for genetic predisposition to alcohol metabolism, mild-to-moderate drinkers had equivalent AF risks, and heavy drinkers showed increased AF risk in the low PRS tertile group. However, mild-to-moderate drinkers had decreased AF risks and heavy drinkers showed similar risks of AF in the middle/high PRS tertile groups. Conclusions Differential associations between alcohol consumption habits and incident AF across genetic predisposition to alcohol metabolism were observed; individuals with genetic predisposition to low alcohol metabolism were more susceptible to AF.