The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities

Abstract Compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events pose greater risks to the environment, society, and human health than their univariate counterparts. Here, we project decadal-length changes in the frequency and duration of CDHE events for major U.S. cities during the 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to an urban canopy parameterization, we find a considerable increase in the frequency and duration of future CDHE events across all U.S. major cities under the compound effect of high-intensity GHG- and urban development-induced warming. Our results indicate that while GHG-induced warming is the primary driver of the increased frequency and duration of CDHE events, urban development amplifies this effect and should not be neglected. Furthermore, We show that the highest frequency amplification of major CDHE events is expected for U.S. cities across the Great Plains South, Southwest, and the southern part of the Northwest National Climate Assessment regions.