Assessing the importance of risk factors for diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Results from the classification and regression tree models

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is one of the serious complications of diabetes mellitus (DM). Many studies have identified the risk factors associated with DR, but there is not much evidence on the importance of these factors for DR. This study aimed to investigate the associated factors for patients with type 2 DM (T2DM) and calculate the importance of the identified factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using probability proportionate to size sampling method in this community-based cross-sectional study, 22 community health service centers were selected from 10 administrative districts in Shenzhen, China. Approximately 60 T2DM patients were recruited from each center. The participants completed a structural questionnaire, had their venous blood collected, and underwent medical examinations and fundus photography. Logistic regression models were used to identify the risk factors of DR. The classification and regression tree (CART) model was used to calculate the importance of the identified risk factors. RESULTS: This study recruited 1097 T2DM patients, 266 of whom were identified as having DR, yielding a prevalence rate of 24.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.7%–26.9%). Results showed that a longer duration of DM, indoor-type lifestyle, and higher levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or urea increased the risk of DR. Patients with HbA1c values ≥7% were about 2.45 times (odds ratio: 2.45; 95% CI: 1.83–3.29) more likely to have DR than their counterparts. The CART model found that the values of variable importance for HbA1c, DM duration, lifestyle (i.e., indoor type), and urea were 48%, 37%, 10%, and 4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of DR is high for T2DM patients who receive DM health management services from the primary healthcare system. HbA1c is the most important risk factor for DR. Integration of DR screening and HbA1c testing into the healthcare services for T2DM to reduce vision impairment and blindness is urgently warranted.