Future CO2 emissions from shipping: four-scenarios using a multi-level perspective – a proposed methodology

Previous work by Pettit et al (2017) drew on Socio-technical Transitions Theory (STT) to contextualise recent developments in the technological and operational eco-efficiency of ships which may ameliorate sustainability issues in shipping. Within STT the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) is a framework used to explain the permeation of innovations into society (Geels, 2014). The framework has three levels: Landscape; Regime and Niche. In order to develop a better understanding of changes that may take place in the future, this paper uses the MLP to assess the broad range of challenges facing the shipping industry with respect to future CO2 emissions at each of the three levels. The framework is applied to four scenarios for global shipping in order to understand the potential range of outcomes for CO2 emissions. The four scenarios are: ‘Business as Usual’; ‘Managed Transition’; ‘Chaotic Transition’; and ‘Managed Degrowth’. It is contended that changes in the shipping industry alone are unlikely to lead to large-scale changes in its CO2 emissions. Under ‘Business as Usual’ conditions, CO2 emissions will continue to rise as the changes required at all three levels, but primarily at the regime level, will have limited impact. Under the other three scenarios, it is suggested that there is room for optimism that CO2 emissions will decline over time.