Evaluation Method and Spatiotemporal Pattern of Intercity Travel Behavior Resilience Based on Time Series Predictions

With the rapid development of urban regionalization and networking of high-speed transport, intercity travel has increasingly played a key role in China's economic and social development and socioeconomic functional connections. However, amidst global change and uncertainty, the event disturbance-oriented theory and empirical research on intercity travel is still insufficient to improve the ability of transportation systems to cope with disturbances. Since uncertainty is prevalent in transport operations, improving Intercity Travel Behavior Resilience (ITBR) and grasping the spatiotemporal pattern of demand-side intercity travel fluctuation to restrain risk is essential for resilient transport construction. Based on related theories and analysis methods of spatial interaction and intercity travel, this study refines the definition of ITBR. A measurement model of ITBR was constructed based on long-term intercity travel data and the general properties of disturbance events. Furthermore, COVID-19 disturbance was used as a case study to reveal the adaptive pattern of intercity travel and the spatiotemporal pattern of ITBR over three years. The results show that the evaluation of ITBR based on seasonal and holiday trends reveal spatiotemporal patterns of intercity travel fluctuations influenced by disturbance events. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on intercity travel is as follows: peak of the national pandemic > peak of the Omicron variant > peak of the multipoint fluctuation. The intensity of intercity travel decreased linearly with an increase in distance, and intercity travel during the three stages is lost by 0.86, 1.03, 1.15 percentage points, respectively, with an increase of 50 km. The average intercity travel distances of residents in these three stages were shortened by 52.55, 65.31, and 105.16 km, respectively. The value of ITBR decreased from the multipoint fluctuation period to the national pandemic period because of the Omicron outbreak. Overall, ITBR showed a gradual increasing trend during the study period. Meanwhile, ITBR in these three stages was characterized by obvious spatial differentiation and regional agglomeration. Compared to existing research, this study further expands existing research focusing on intra-city travel behavior resilience by exploring ITBR on the regional scale.