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A Modeling Approach for Analyzing the Hydrological Impacts of the Agribusiness Land-Use Scenarios in an Amazon Basin

Authors :
Zandra A. Cunha
Carlos R. Mello
Samuel Beskow
Marcelle M. Vargas
Jorge A. Guzman
Maíra M. Moura
Source :
Land, Vol 12, Iss 7, p 1422 (2023)
Publication Year :
2023
Publisher :
MDPI AG, 2023.

Abstract

The Xingu River Basin (XRB) in the Brazilian Amazon region has a great relevance to the development of northern Brazil because of the Belo Monte hydropower plant and its crescent agribusiness expansion. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of the Lavras Simulation of the Hydrology (LASH) model to represent the main hydrological processes in the XRB and simulate the hydrological impacts in the face of land-use change scenarios. Following the trend of the most relevant agribusiness evolution in the XRB, four agribusiness scenarios (S) were structured considering the increase in grasslands (S1: 50% over the native forest; S2: 100% over the native forest) and soybean plantations (S3: 50% over the native forest; S4: 100% over native forest). Average hydrographs were simulated, and the frequency duration curves (FDC) and average annual values of the main hydrological components for each scenario were compared. The results showed that, in general, changes in land use based on deforestation in the XRB would lead to an increase in flood streamflow and a reduction in baseflow. The increases in direct surface runoff varied from 4.4% for S1 to 29.8% for S4 scenarios. The reduction in baseflow varied from −1.6% for S1 to −4.9% for S2. These changes were reduced when the entire XRB was analyzed, but notable for the sub-basins in its headwater region, where the scenarios were more effective.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
2073445X
Volume :
12
Issue :
7
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Land
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.b3ace28d76e14a26a35ce9b19fd51798
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/land12071422