Potential distribution of Croton guatemalensis: a model with reproductive biology data

Background: The inclusion of information on the phenology of any given species can significantly improve the resulting of potential distribution models. Scientific literature does not provide up-to-date information on the abiotic and biotic factors that determine the distribution of Croton guatemalensis, a species native to communities in south Mexico. For the first time, the potential distribution of C. guatemalensis was determined using a model which includes reproductive biology data. Questions: Which bioclimatic and climatic variables most contribute to the distribution of C. guatemalensis? Does reproductive biology data contribute significantly to the prediction of the species distribution? Studied species/Mathematical model: Croton guatemalensis/ Maximum Entropy Modeling Study area and dates: Chiapas, Mexico, January - December 2020. Methods: The MaxEnt 4.4.4 algorithm was used, incorporating 16 variables, including bioclimatic, climatic and elevation. In addition, a habitat suitability layer was built. Results: The model presented a precision of AUC = 0.964 ± 0.004. Eight variables contributed to explain 86.5 % of the potential distribution of the species. According to their contribution to the model, the most important were the seasonality of precipitation, habitat suitability, elevation and April solar radiation. The species was found in the physiographic regions Central America South Mountain Range Subprovince, Central Depression of Chiapas Discontinuity, and Altos de Chiapas Subprovince. Conclusions: The inclusion reproductive biology data of C. guatemalensis contributed to improve the model. This information allows the development of more effective management and conservation plans by identifying the precise regions in which the species is found.