Identifying optimal candidates for autologous peripheral blood stem cell therapy in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis: a prognostic scoring system

Abstract Background Stem cell transplantation shows great potential to improve the long-term survival of cirrhosis patients. However, therapeutic effects may not be homogeneous across the whole study population. This study constructed an easy-to-use nomogram to improve prognostic prediction and aid in treatment decision making for cirrhotic patients. Methods From August 2005 to April 2019, 315 patients with decompensated cirrhosis receiving autologous peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) transplantation were enrolled in this study. They were randomly classified into training (2/3) and validation (1/3) groups. A predictive model was developed using Cox proportional hazard models and subsequently validated. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated and also compared with other prognostic models. Results Age, creatinine, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and Child–Turcotte–Pugh class were included in the nomogram as prognostic variables. The nomogram showed high discrimination power concerning the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (3/5-year AUC: 0.742/0.698) and good consistency suggested by calibration plots. Patients could be accurately stratified into poor- and good-outcome groups regarding liver-transplantation free survival after receiving PBSC therapy (P