High-resolution mapping of tree species and associated uncertainty by combining aerial remote sensing data and convolutional neural networks ensemble

Mapping tree species diversity is essential for monitoring and managing forest ecosystems. Automating ecoforestry mapping using remote sensing images remains an important challenge due to the tremendous variability in forest covers and the conditions under which images used for classification are acquired. Deep learning algorithms have been increasingly used over the last few years to analyse remote sensing data for mapping tree species. However, most of these studies focus only on a small number of species or a limited area and avoid providing a spatially explicit representation of the uncertainty related to the predictions, rendering them unsuitable for operational use.In this study, we used an ensemble of convolutional neural networks to map forest species and land cover types across a 10,000 km2 area in Quebec, Canada, spanning mixed and boreal forests. We built a georeferenced label database to train and test nine models, which resulted from the combination of three training datasets and three-commonly used convolutional neural network architectures (VGG16, ResNet50v2, Densenet121). These models were trained on multiband aerial photographs and a canopy height model derived from airborne lidar point clouds and used to map the diversity and distribution of tree species and land cover types. The level of agreement among models was used to generate uncertainty maps. The performance of the super-ensemble using 1311 independent forest inventory plots and assessed the extent to which uncertainty maps could serve as a spatially explicit indicator of model performance.The super-ensemble achieved 90% global accuracy. Our results indicated that the performance of the super-ensemble surpassed that of all individual architectures while also showing a positive effect of the canopy height model on performance. The comparison of the super-ensemble map with the proportion of basal area measured in forest inventory plots confirmed the reliability of the model over the study area. Our results also indicated that mapping the inter-model agreement provides a reliable spatially explicit estimate of model performance. The robustness and reliability of the proposed approach support its use in an operational context while also providing a conceptual framework to evaluate the reliability of uncertainty maps.