Association of blood lead concentrations with mortality in older women: a prospective cohort study

Abstract Background Blood lead concentrations have been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular, cancer, and all-cause mortality in adults in general population and occupational cohorts. We aimed to determine the association between blood lead, all cause and cause specific mortality in elderly, community residing women. Methods Prospective cohort study of 533 women aged 65–87 years enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures at 2 US research centers (Baltimore, MD; Monongahela Valley, PA) from 1986–1988. Blood lead concentrations were determined by atomic absorption spectrometry. Using blood lead concentration categorized as < 8 μg/dL (0.384 μmol/L), and ≥ 8 μg/dL (0.384 μmol/L), we determined the relative risk of mortality from all cause, and cause-specific mortality, through Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results Mean blood lead concentration was 5.3 ± 2.3 μg/dL (range 1–21) [0.25 ± 0.11 μmol/L (range 0.05–1.008)]. After 12.0 ± 3 years of > 95% complete follow-up, 123 (23%) women who died had slightly higher mean (± SD) blood lead 5.56 (± 3) μg/dL [0.27(± 0.14) μmol/L] than survivors: 5.17(± 2.0) [0.25(± 0.1) μmol/L] (p = 0.09). Women with blood lead concentrations ≥ 8 μg/dL (0.384 μmol/L), had 59% increased risk of multivariate adjusted all cause mortality (Hazard Ratio [HR], 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–2.49) (p = 0.041) especially coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality (HR = 3.08 [CI], (1.23–7.70)(p = 0.016), compared to women with blood lead concentrations < 8 μg/dL(< 0.384 μmol/L). There was no association of blood lead with stroke, cancer, or non cardiovascular deaths. Conclusion Women with blood lead concentrations of ≥ 8 μg/dL (0.384 μmol/L), experienced increased mortality, in particular from CHD as compared to those with lower blood lead concentrations.