Securing China’s rice harvest: unveiling dominant factors in production using multi-source data and hybrid machine learning models

Abstract Ensuring the security of China’s rice harvest is imperative for sustainable food production. The existing study addresses a critical need by employing a comprehensive approach that integrates multi-source data, including climate, remote sensing, soil properties and agricultural statistics from 2000 to 2017. The research evaluates six artificial intelligence (AI) models including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL) models and their hybridization to predict rice production across China, particularly focusing on the main rice cultivation areas. These models were random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), conventional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), and the hybridization of RF with XGB and CNN with LSTM based on eleven combinations (scenarios) of input variables. The main results identify that hybrid models have performed better than single models. As well, the best scenario was recorded in scenarios 8 (soil variables and sown area) and 11 (all variables) based on the RF-XGB by decreasing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 38% and 31% respectively. Further, in both scenarios, RF-XGB generated a high correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.97 in comparison with other developed models. Moreover, the soil properties contribute as the predominant factors influencing rice production, exerting an 87% and 53% impact in east and southeast China, respectively. Additionally, it observes a yearly increase of 0.16 °C and 0.19 °C in maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), coupled with a 20 mm/year decrease in precipitation decline a 2.23% reduction in rice production as average during the study period in southeast China region. This research provides valuable insights into the dynamic interplay of environmental factors affecting China’s rice production, informing strategic measures to enhance food security in the face of evolving climatic conditions.