Risk factors and predicting nomogram for the clinical deterioration of non-severe community-acquired pneumonia

Abstract Background Currently, there remains insufficient focus on non-severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients who are at risk of clinical deterioration, and there is also a dearth of research on the related risk factors. Early recognition of hospitalized patients at risk of clinical deterioration will be beneficial for their clinical management. Method A retrospective study was conducted in The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, China, spanning from January 1, 2018 to April 30, 2022, and involving a total of 1,632 non-severe CAP patients. Based on whether their condition worsened within 72 h of admission, patients were divided into a clinical deterioration group and a non-clinical deterioration group. Additionally, all patients were randomly assigned to a training set containing 75% of patients and a validation set containing 25% of patients. In the training set, risk factors for clinical deterioration in patients with non-severe CAP were identified by using LASSO regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was developed based on identified risk factors. The effectiveness of the nomogram in both the training and validation sets was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Age, body mass index (BMI), body temperature, cardiovascular comorbidity, respiratory rate, LDH level, lymphocyte count and D-dimer level were identified as risk factors associated with the clinical deterioration of non-severe CAP within 72 h of admission. The area under curve (AUC) value of the nomogram was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.74–0.82) in the training set and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.67–0.83) in the validation set. Furthermore, the calibration curves for both the training and validation sets indicated that the predicted probability of clinical deterioration aligned with the actual probability. Additionally, DCA revealed clinical utility for the nomogram at a specific threshold probability. Conclusion The study successfully identified the risk factors linked to the clinical deterioration of non-severe CAP and constructed a nomogram for predicting the probability of deterioration. The nomogram demonstrated favorable predictive performance and has the potential to aid in the early identification and management of non-severe CAP patients at elevated risk of deterioration.