Distribution and determinants of early marriage and motherhood: a multilevel and geospatial analysis of 707 districts in India

Abstract Background Early marriage and motherhood have long been prevalent in India, with 44.5% of women aged 20–24 reporting marriage before 18 in NFHS 3 (2005–2006), dropping to 26.8% in NFHS 4 (2015–2016). Early motherhood has also seen a significant decline, with first births by age 18 decreasing from 34.3% in NFHS I to 8.2% in NFHS V. Despite these improvements, significant regional disparities persist due to social, normative, and legal factors. This study investigates the spatial heterogeneity of early marriage and motherhood across Indian districts, offering a multilevel analysis that reveals critical local variations often obscured at broader levels. Understanding these patterns is crucial for targeted policy interventions and addressing the root causes of early marriage and motherhood. Methods Utilizing data from the fifth round of National Family Health Survey, this study employs multilevel logistic regression and geospatial analysis to assess the determinants and spatial distribution of early marriage and early motherhood among ever-married women in India. The analysis incorporates individual, household, and community-level variables, complemented by spatial analysis techniques, including Empirical Bayes Bivariate Moran’s I values and LISA cluster maps, to identify regional patterns and hotspots. Results This study revealed that educational attainment emerged as a critical determinant, with uneducated women significantly more likely to marry early. Socioeconomic factors, such as poverty and limited mass media exposure, also heightened the risk of early marriage and motherhood. Caste and religion were significantly associated with these events, with marginalized groups facing higher prevalence. Spatial analysis revealed significant geographic disparities, with central and eastern regions showing higher concentrations of early marriage and motherhood. District-level characteristics and the influence of neighboring districts were also significant, highlighting the importance of localized interventions. Conclusions The findings underscore the critical role of education, economic empowerment, and media literacy in mitigating early marriage and motherhood risks. The study calls for multi-sectoral interventions in geographical hotspots to break the cycle of early family formation and promote reproductive health. Policies enhancing educational opportunities, addressing economic disadvantages, and considering district-specific factors are essential. Comprehensive strategies are necessary to empower women, foster reproductive health, and address the multifaceted nature of early marriage and motherhood in India.