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Prognosis Score System to Predict Survival for COVID-19 Cases: a Korean Nationwide Cohort Study
- Source :
- Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol 23, Iss 2, p e26257 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- JMIR Publications, 2021.
-
Abstract
- BackgroundAs the COVID-19 pandemic continues, an initial risk-adapted allocation is crucial for managing medical resources and providing intensive care. ObjectiveIn this study, we aimed to identify factors that predict the overall survival rate for COVID-19 cases and develop a COVID-19 prognosis score (COPS) system based on these factors. In addition, disease severity and the length of hospital stay for patients with COVID-19 were analyzed. MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed a nationwide cohort of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases between January and April 2020 in Korea. The cohort was split randomly into a development cohort and a validation cohort with a 2:1 ratio. In the development cohort (n=3729), we tried to identify factors associated with overall survival and develop a scoring system to predict the overall survival rate by using parameters identified by the Cox proportional hazard regression model with bootstrapping methods. In the validation cohort (n=1865), we evaluated the prediction accuracy using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The score of each variable in the COPS system was rounded off following the log-scaled conversion of the adjusted hazard ratio. ResultsAmong the 5594 patients included in this analysis, 234 (4.2%) died after receiving a COVID-19 diagnosis. In the development cohort, six parameters were significantly related to poor overall survival: older age, dementia, chronic renal failure, dyspnea, mental disturbance, and absolute lymphocyte count
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 14388871
- Volume :
- 23
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Directory of Open Access Journals
- Journal :
- Journal of Medical Internet Research
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- edsdoj.9bea3f645e84df5a02419fe6ff063f7
- Document Type :
- article
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.2196/26257