The early prognostic value of the 1–4-day BCM/PA trend after admission in neurocritical patients

Abstract The purpose of this study was to investigate early stage dynamic changes in relevant indicators in neurocritical patients to identify biomarkers that can predict a poor prognosis at an early stage (1–4 days after admission). This study retrospectively collected clinical data, inflammatory indicators, and nutritional indicators from 77 patients at the neurology intensive care unit. The 3-month modified Rankin scale score was used as the outcome indicator. A linear mixed model was used to analyze changes in inflammatory indicators and nutritional indicators in neurocritical patients over time from 1–4 days after admission. Logistic regression was used to determine the independent risk factors for a poor prognosis in neurocritical patients and to construct a predictive model. The predictive efficacy of the model was verified using leave-one-out cross-validation and decision curve analysis methods. The analysis results showed that 1–4 days after admission, the inflammatory indicators of white blood cell and absolute monocyte counts and the nutritional indicators of body cell mass(BCM), fat-free mass, body cell mass/phase angle (BCM/PA), intracellular water, extracellular water, and skeletal muscle index increased overall, while the nutritional indicators of albumin and visceral fat area decreased overall. The logistic multivariate regression model showed that the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) (odds ratio (OR) = 2.526, 95% CI [1.202, 5.308]), hemoglobin (Hb)(on admission)-Hb(min) (OR = 1.049, 95% CI [1.015, 1.083), BCM(on admission) (OR = 0.794, 95% CI [0.662, 0.952]), and the change in BCM/PA 1–4 days after admission (OR = 1.157, 95% CI [1.070, 1.252]) were independent risk factors for a poor prognosis in neurocritical patients. The predictive analysis showed that the predictive power of Model 1 with BCM/PA (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.95, 95% CI (0.90, 0.99)) was 93%, 65%, 141%, and 133% higher than that of Model 2 without BCM/PA, the CCI, the APACHE II score, and the NRS2002 score (all P