Reversions mask the contribution of adaptive evolution in microbiomes

When examining bacterial genomes for evidence of past selection, the results depend heavily on the mutational distance between chosen genomes. Even within a bacterial species, genomes separated by larger mutational distances exhibit stronger evidence of purifying selection as assessed by dN/dS, the normalized ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations. Here, we show that the classical interpretation of this scale dependence, weak purifying selection, leads to problematic mutation accumulation when applied to available gut microbiome data. We propose an alternative, adaptive reversion model with opposite implications for dynamical intuition and applications of dN/dS. Reversions that occur and sweep within-host populations are nearly guaranteed in microbiomes due to large population sizes, short generation times, and variable environments. Using analytical and simulation approaches, we show that adaptive reversion can explain the dN/dS decay given only dozens of locally fluctuating selective pressures, which is realistic in the context of Bacteroides genomes. The success of the adaptive reversion model argues for interpreting low values of dN/dS obtained from long timescales with caution as they may emerge even when adaptive sweeps are frequent. Our work thus inverts the interpretation of an old observation in bacterial evolution, illustrates the potential of mutational reversions to shape genomic landscapes over time, and highlights the importance of studying bacterial genomic evolution on short timescales.