Carbon removal potentials in agricultural systems – participatory scenario modelling with farmers in Sweden

Estimates of theoretical climate change mitigation potentials in agriculture need to be complemented with investigations of factors that influence deployment. This study introduces a framework for landscape-level assessment of climate change mitigation in agriculture that accounts for existing land uses, soil carbon stocks, and farmers’ preferences concerning specific mitigation options. The framework is used in an assessment of the deployment potentials for selected mitigation options in an agricultural landscape in Sweden, in which arable land covers approximately one-third of the land area. Three options were found to be preferable by farmers: biochar as soil amendment, cover crops, and (an increased) cultivation of ley crops in crop rotations. Cultivation of cover crops and leys was found to increase SOC stocks by 1.9 and 1.6 MgC ha−1 over three decades, respectively. About 10.2 MgC ha−1 is sequestered in soils over three decades when biochar is added as a soil amendment, if 50% of available residues are collected and utilized. This can be compared with GHG emissions from agriculture from the studied area, estimated at 1.6 Mg CO2-eq ha−1 yr−1 (GWP100). The framework was found useful for assessing mitigation options in the agriculture sector, underlining farmer involvement to identify actionable strategies.