VORAUSSCHAU UND REGULIERUNG VON INNOVATIONSPROZESSEN IM BEREICH DER UBIQUITÄREN INFORMATIONS- UND KOMMUNIKATIONSTECHNOLOGIE

On the one hand technological innovations can create new markets and can provide for solutions of current social problems; on the other hand the can raise questions concerning environmental and/or social adequacy on short-, middle-, and long-range time scales. In or-der to strengthen the positive outcomes of innovations and to reduce or even prevent nega-tive effects, the task of technology assessment is to predict the positive as well as the nega-tive effects and repercussions of innovations as early as possible. However, it must be pre-supposed that first, it must be possible to make to a certain extent reliable predications about the future development and second, that regulatory measurements in order to strengthen the positive outcomes of innovations and to reduce or even prevent negative effects will find their respective addressees. But if one takes, for instance, ubiquitous information and com-munication technology into account it can be demonstrated that those conditions rarely can be met. This is the result of the types of innovation which take place in case of ICT as well as of the so-called Collingridge dilemma. Both factors reduce the reliability of predictions. Furthermore, regulatory measurements often do not find their addressees since the borders of the societal subsystems in which innovation take place are blurring and therefore, these subsystems often cannot be reached with mainstream regulatory approaches like laws.