Unveiling the complexities of sustainable urban phosphorus management based on lifecycle assessment and decomposition analysis

To address global phosphorus reduction challenges, we establish a quantitative framework for anthropogenic phosphorus emissions using a lifecycle model and decomposition analysis. Focusing on China's Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, we highlight persistent difficulties in controlling phosphorus emissions from agricultural fertilizers and the emerging issue from industrial products. Emission intensity is a crucial factor for phosphorus reduction, yet gradually offset by affluence and population growth. Prioritizing agricultural control with supplementary industrial reduction, we delve into the decoupling challenge between phosphorus emissions, population expansion, and economic development. Proposing green economic development, our approach contributes to achieving sustainable phosphorus management goals.