Estimating the Spatial Distribution and Future Conservation Requirements of the Spotted Seal in the North Pacific

Local adaptation has been increasingly involved in the designation of species conservation strategies to response to climate change. Marine mammals, as apex predators, are climatechange sensitive, and their spatial distribution and conservation requirements are critically significant for designing protection strategies. In this study, we focused on an ice-breeding marine mammal, the spotted seal (Phoca largha), which exhibits distinct morphological and genetic variations across its range. Our objectives were to quantify the ecological niches of three spotted seal populations, construct the species-level model and population-level models that represent different regions in the Bering population (BDPS), Okhotsk population (ODPS) and southern population (SDPS), and conduct a conservation gap analysis. Our findings unequivocally demonstrated a clear niche divergence among the three populations. We predicted habitat contraction for the BDPS and ODPS driven by climate change; in particular, the spotted seals inhabiting Liaodong Bay may face breeding habitat loss. However, most spotted seal habitats are not represented in existing marine protected areas. Drawing upon these outcomes, we propose appropriate conservation policies to effectively protect the habitat of the different geographical populations of spotted seals. Our research addresses the importance of incorporating local adaptation into species distribution modeling to inform conservation and management strategies.