Potential reduction in emissions after replacement of automobile air conditioning refrigerants in China

For more than a decade, R134a has been the most widely used refrigerant in automobile air conditioners in China. Although R134a does not damage the ozone layer, it contributes to the greenhouse effect. In 2021, China officially announced its decision to accept the Kigali Amendment, which mandates the gradual replacement of hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants used in automobile air conditioners. Focusing on the replacement of R134a with R1234yf and R744 — two environment-friendly refrigerants that are currently popular in the industry — this study predicted how refrigerant replacement could impact China’s emissions under different scenarios in the future. The results showed that with automobile electrification in China, emissions from automobile air conditioners could peak in 2030 and drop to 58,300 tons of CO2 equivalents by 2045. Through relevant policy interventions, the emissions from automobile air conditioners could be reduced to 27,500 tons of CO2 equivalents by 2045 — a decrease of 52.8%. Thus, policy interventions could have a great impact on automobile air conditioner-related emissions. The research results of this study provide basic data for the subsequent formulation of relevant policies, so as to better promote the development of non-carbon greenhouse gas emission reduction in China.